Tuesday, April 13, 2010

The Greatest Dangerous Import

The current trade imbalance is giving heartburn to manufacturers and unions alike, who are having just an industrial age Dickens’ of a time digesting the new reality. The current rate of the imbalance is expected to increase proportionally in the next few years. Last November, for example, the gap increased to almost 9.4%. Most high end companies, B&W, Krell, Vincent (Sheng Ya), Musical Fidelity et.al, have their equipment (or in the case of Krell, some of the equipment) made in the same place that puts duck sauce on pancakes.

The biggest import threat to those who want to manufacture and sell audio in the USA, is not the trade imbalance with China, but the import of Chicago politics to Washington D.C. And that my friends, more than anything, is a real threat to any small business trying to make a buck in a lethal economy.

The bullying, conniving and shoving executed with the breath-taking precision of a Hawks game was on display during the passage of what I think seems to be some sort of health care bill. Make no Jimmy Hoffa bones about it my friends, this is just the start of the Chicago dance. As the Jimmy Carter redux era unwinds the boom of the 1980s, our “Check Please” President is more apt at commenting on the foie gras then he is at nuclear disarmament (“Check Please” is a PBS show in Chicago that has people go out and eat at a restaurant and report back. There, the fresh Senator Obama appeared and gave a review of his favorite eating establishment). Since he has managed so little (except some community organizing- Psssst, very few communities in Chicago actually did get organized), he is going to have a hard time navigating us out of this mess. What we all hope does not happen is that he may use some of his Lake Michigan toxins to do more damage to what is a very fragile climate for any small business. We now know that this ‘Change” he was talking about was really the change of thin crust to thick crust pizza.

US bound audio manufacturers are going to have it tough in hiring expenses, taxes - perhaps even a VAT to avoid a “Greece” like trauma. Someone has to pay for these things and it’s the same people that buy high end audio. Consumers are going to face higher taxes and will have less discretionary income to part with their current rigs and step up to high end audio. Just wait and see after the election.

High end audio need not worry though, “change” is on its way: Pepperoni or just plain cheese?

All the best,
Vic